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Infer Inheritance Patterns from a Family Trait Record

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Contents

Task Overview

Benchmark Genres

Education Q&A

Task Creator Model

Answering Models

Judge Models

Task Prompt

A rare genetic trait appears in one extended family. Assume the trait is fully penetrant, there are no new mutations, and every listed biological relationship is correct. Family record: - Generation I: I-1 is an unaffected male and I-2 is an unaffected female. They have three children: II-1 unaffected female, II-2 affected male, and II-3 unaffected female. - II-2 (affected male) and his unaffected female partner II-4 have two children: III-1 affected daughter and III-2 unaffected son. - II-1 (unaffected female) an...

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A rare genetic trait appears in one extended family. Assume the trait is fully penetrant, there are no new mutations, and every listed biological relationship is correct. Family record: - Generation I: I-1 is an unaffected male and I-2 is an unaffected female. They have three children: II-1 unaffected female, II-2 affected male, and II-3 unaffected female. - II-2 (affected male) and his unaffected female partner II-4 have two children: III-1 affected daughter and III-2 unaffected son. - II-1 (unaffected female) and her unaffected male partner II-5 have two children: III-3 unaffected daughter and III-4 unaffected son. - II-3 (unaffected female) and her unaffected male partner II-6 have one child: III-5 affected son. Question: 1. Which of the following inheritance modes are consistent with the family record, and which can be ruled out: autosomal dominant, autosomal recessive, X-linked dominant, X-linked recessive, Y-linked, mitochondrial? 2. For each mode, give a brief reason based only on the information provided. 3. Identify the single most likely mode if you must choose one, and explain why it is more plausible than the other consistent mode or modes. Answer in clear bullet points.

Task Context

Treat unaffected as not expressing the trait. Do not assume any genotype frequencies from the general population; reason only from the pedigree structure given.

Judging Policy

A strong answer correctly classifies each inheritance mode as consistent or ruled out, and gives pedigree-based reasons that are logically valid. It should notice that unaffected parents producing affected children strongly constrains the possibilities, and it should evaluate sex-specific transmission patterns carefully. The best answers distinguish between modes that are merely possible and the one that is most plausible under the stated assumptions, without relying on outside prevalence data or unsupported assumptions.

Answers

• AUTOSOMAL DOMINANT: Ruled out. I-1 and I-2 are both unaffected but have affected son II-2. An unaffected parent cannot pass a dominant allele to an affected child. • AUTOSOMAL RECESSIVE: Consistent. I-1 and I-2 are both carriers (Aa × Aa). II-2 is affected (aa). II-2 (aa) × II-4 (Aa, carrier) produces affected daughter III-1 (aa) and unaffected son III-2 (Aa). II-1 (Aa) × II-5 (AA or Aa) produces unaffected children III-3 and III-4. II-3 (Aa) × II-6 (aa, affected) produces affected son III-5 (aa). All genotypes are consistent. • X-LINKED DOMINANT: Ruled out. Affected male II-2 would pass his X chromosome to a...

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• AUTOSOMAL DOMINANT: Ruled out. I-1 and I-2 are both unaffected but have affected son II-2. An unaffected parent cannot pass a dominant allele to an affected child. • AUTOSOMAL RECESSIVE: Consistent. I-1 and I-2 are both carriers (Aa × Aa). II-2 is affected (aa). II-2 (aa) × II-4 (Aa, carrier) produces affected daughter III-1 (aa) and unaffected son III-2 (Aa). II-1 (Aa) × II-5 (AA or Aa) produces unaffected children III-3 and III-4. II-3 (Aa) × II-6 (aa, affected) produces affected son III-5 (aa). All genotypes are consistent. • X-LINKED DOMINANT: Ruled out. Affected male II-2 would pass his X chromosome to all daughters, making III-1 affected (consistent), but he would pass his Y to all sons, making III-2 unaffected (consistent). However, unaffected female II-3 cannot have an affected son III-5 unless II-6 is affected; but II-6 is stated as unaffected. Contradiction. • X-LINKED RECESSIVE: Ruled out. Affected male II-2 (X^a Y) would pass X^a to all daughters. III-1 is affected, so she must be X^a X^a, meaning II-4 must be X^a X^a (affected). But II-4 is stated as unaffected. Contradiction. • Y-LINKED: Ruled out. Affected males II-2 and III-5 would pass the trait to all sons. But III-2 (son of II-2) is unaffected. Contradiction. • MITOCHONDRIAL: Ruled out. Affected individuals II-2 and III-5 would pass the trait to all children. But II-2 has unaffected son III-2. Contradiction. • MOST LIKELY MODE: Autosomal recessive is the single consistent inheritance pattern. It is the only mode that explains all observations: two unaffected parents producing affected offspring, affected individuals having both affected and unaffected children depending on partner genotypes, and the trait appearing in both males and females across generations without sex-specific patterns.

Result

#2

Winning Votes

1 / 3

Average Score

62
Judge Models OpenAI GPT-5.2

Total Score

88

Overall Comments

Accurately rules in autosomal recessive and rules out all other listed modes with pedigree-specific contradictions. The X-linked analyses are correct, including the key point that an affected daughter from an affected father requires the mother to be at least a carrier (and in this pedigree would force her to be affected under full penetrance). The only notable weakness is a minor overstatement in the mitochondrial rationale wording (it frames affected individuals as transmitters rather than emphasizing maternal-only transmission), but the conclusion to rule it out is still correct. Chooses autosomal recessive as most likely with a reasonable justification tied to the pedigree structure and lack of sex-specific pattern.

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Correctness

Weight 45%
90

Correctly identifies autosomal recessive as consistent and rules out autosomal dominant, X-linked dominant, X-linked recessive, Y-linked, and mitochondrial with appropriate pedigree-based contradictions; conclusions align with full penetrance/no new mutations assumptions.

Reasoning Quality

Weight 20%
80

Uses clear contradiction-style pedigree logic (unaffected parents producing affected child; sex-specific transmission; father-to-daughter patterns) and gives genotype sketches that match the record; minor imprecision in mitochondrial phrasing but reasoning is still structurally sound.

Completeness

Weight 15%
90

Covers all six modes, states consistent vs ruled out, provides a reason for each, and picks a single most likely with explanation.

Clarity

Weight 10%
85

Bullet structure is easy to scan, with explicit labels and concise contradictions; genotype notation helps readability.

Instruction Following

Weight 10%
90

Follows bullet-point requirement, addresses all subquestions, and stays within pedigree-based reasoning.

Total Score

59

Overall Comments

Answer A correctly rules out autosomal dominant, Y-linked, and mitochondrial inheritance with valid reasoning. However, it makes a critical error in ruling out X-linked recessive: it claims that an affected daughter (III-1) from an affected father (II-2) requires the mother (II-4) to be homozygous affected, when in fact the mother only needs to be a carrier (heterozygous). This is a fundamental genetics mistake that leads to an incorrect conclusion. As a result, Answer A incorrectly identifies autosomal recessive as the only consistent mode, missing X-linked recessive entirely. The reasoning for X-linked dominant ruling is also indirect (focusing on II-3/III-5) rather than using the cleaner argument that I-2 is unaffected yet II-2 is affected.

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Correctness

Weight 45%
55

Answer A makes a critical error by ruling out X-linked recessive, incorrectly claiming that an affected daughter from an affected father requires the mother to be homozygous affected rather than merely a carrier. This is a fundamental genetics mistake. All other rulings (autosomal dominant, Y-linked, mitochondrial) are correct. The X-linked dominant ruling reaches the right conclusion but via a secondary argument rather than the primary one.

Reasoning Quality

Weight 20%
50

The reasoning for most modes is sound, but the X-linked recessive reasoning contains a logical error that invalidates the conclusion. The autosomal recessive reasoning is detailed and correct. The X-linked dominant reasoning uses a valid but secondary argument. Overall reasoning quality is undermined by the critical X-linked recessive error.

Completeness

Weight 15%
65

Answer A addresses all six inheritance modes and provides a most-likely determination. However, by missing X-linked recessive as a consistent mode, it fails to fully address the comparison between consistent modes that the question requires.

Clarity

Weight 10%
75

Answer A is clearly structured with bullet points, uses consistent notation, and is easy to follow. The genotype assignments in the autosomal recessive section are particularly clear and detailed.

Instruction Following

Weight 10%
70

Answer A follows the bullet point format, addresses all six modes, and provides a most-likely determination. However, it fails to correctly identify all consistent modes, which is a core requirement of the task.

Total Score

41

Overall Comments

Answer A correctly rules out most inheritance patterns, but it makes a significant error by incorrectly ruling out X-linked recessive inheritance based on flawed logic. This fundamental mistake undermines its entire conclusion, leading it to wrongly identify autosomal recessive as the only possible mode.

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Correctness

Weight 45%
20

The answer makes a critical error by incorrectly ruling out X-linked recessive inheritance. The reasoning provided is flawed: an unaffected mother (II-4) can be a carrier and pass the recessive allele to her daughter (III-1). This error leads to an incorrect final conclusion.

Reasoning Quality

Weight 20%
30

The reasoning for ruling out X-linked recessive is logically invalid. The reasoning for X-linked dominant is also not the most direct or clear. Because the initial analysis is flawed, the reasoning for the 'most likely mode' is simply a default conclusion rather than a comparative analysis, which the prompt requires.

Completeness

Weight 15%
60

The answer addresses all three parts of the question. However, because its analysis of consistent modes is incorrect, the answer to the third part (most likely mode) is fundamentally incomplete as it fails to compare the actual valid possibilities.

Clarity

Weight 10%
75

The answer is written clearly and uses the requested bullet point format. The language is easy to understand, although some of the reasoning (e.g., for X-linked dominant) is slightly convoluted.

Instruction Following

Weight 10%
90

The answer follows the main instructions, such as using bullet points and addressing all parts of the prompt. It correctly bases its reasoning only on the provided information.

- **Autosomal Dominant:** Ruled out. Unaffected parents (I-1 and I-2) have an affected child (II-2). In autosomal dominant inheritance, at least one parent of an affected individual must also be affected. - **Autosomal Recessive:** Consistent. Unaffected parents (I-1 and I-2) can both be carriers and have an affected child (II-2). An affected father (II-2) can have an affected daughter (III-1) if his unaffected partner (II-4) is a carrier. Unaffected parents (II-3 and II-6) can both be carriers and have an affected child (III-5). - **X-linked Dominant:** Ruled out. An unaffected mother (I-2) has an affected...

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- **Autosomal Dominant:** Ruled out. Unaffected parents (I-1 and I-2) have an affected child (II-2). In autosomal dominant inheritance, at least one parent of an affected individual must also be affected. - **Autosomal Recessive:** Consistent. Unaffected parents (I-1 and I-2) can both be carriers and have an affected child (II-2). An affected father (II-2) can have an affected daughter (III-1) if his unaffected partner (II-4) is a carrier. Unaffected parents (II-3 and II-6) can both be carriers and have an affected child (III-5). - **X-linked Dominant:** Ruled out. An unaffected mother (I-2) has an affected son (II-2). In X-linked dominant inheritance, an affected son must inherit the trait from an affected mother. - **X-linked Recessive:** Consistent. Unaffected mother (I-2) can be a carrier and have an affected son (II-2). An affected father (II-2) and an unaffected mother (II-4) can have an affected daughter (III-1) if the mother is a carrier. Unaffected mother (II-3) can be a carrier and have an affected son (III-5) with an unaffected father (II-6). - **Y-linked:** Ruled out. An unaffected father (I-1) has an affected son (II-2). In Y-linked inheritance, all sons of an affected father must be affected, and the father himself must be affected. Also, an affected male (II-2) has an affected daughter (III-1), which is impossible for a Y-linked trait as it only affects males. - **Mitochondrial:** Ruled out. An unaffected mother (I-2) has an affected child (II-2). In mitochondrial inheritance, an affected mother passes the trait to all her children. Also, an affected father (II-2) has an affected child (III-1), which is impossible for a mitochondrial trait as fathers do not pass mitochondrial traits to their children. **Most Likely Mode:** - Both Autosomal Recessive and X-linked Recessive are consistent with the family record. - **X-linked Recessive** is the single most likely mode. This is because it requires fewer individuals to be inferred as carriers compared to Autosomal Recessive. In the X-linked recessive model, I-2, II-3, and II-4 must be carriers. In the autosomal recessive model, I-1, I-2, II-3, II-4, and II-6 must all be carriers. The X-linked recessive model provides a more parsimonious explanation for the observed pattern of inheritance.

Result

#1 | Winner

Winning Votes

2 / 3

Average Score

82
Judge Models OpenAI GPT-5.2

Total Score

68

Overall Comments

Correctly rules out autosomal dominant, X-linked dominant, Y-linked, and mitochondrial, and correctly keeps autosomal recessive as consistent. However, it incorrectly states that X-linked recessive is consistent: with a fully penetrant trait, an affected daughter (III-1) with an affected father (II-2) requires the mother (II-4) to contribute a mutant X; if II-4 were only a carrier she would produce an affected daughter only if the father is affected (true), but the daughter would be affected only if she gets the mutant X from the mother; that implies II-4 must be a carrier, which is possible—yet the deeper issue is that the pedigree’s other affected male (III-5) arises from two unaffected parents and does not contradict XLR, so the key inconsistency is actually that III-1 being affected does not force II-4 to be affected (carrier is sufficient). Still, B’s XLR evaluation is shaky and its parsimony argument relies on counting inferred carriers, which is a weak tie-breaker under the instruction not to use population assumptions; additionally it labels XLR the most likely when the overall pedigree lacks a clear male bias and includes an affected female, making autosomal recessive at least as plausible. Net: it misclassifies/overcommits on XLR and gives a less robust ‘most likely’ choice.

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Correctness

Weight 45%
60

Gets autosomal dominant, X-linked dominant, Y-linked, mitochondrial, and autosomal recessive largely right, but its X-linked recessive consistency/likelihood assessment is not well supported and leads to an overall less correct bottom line.

Reasoning Quality

Weight 20%
60

Reasoning is mostly standard, but the XLR section and the final parsimony-based ‘most likely’ argument are weaker and less aligned with the prompt’s emphasis on pedigree constraints over external plausibility heuristics.

Completeness

Weight 15%
80

Covers all six modes with reasons and provides a most-likely choice; however, the discussion of competing consistent modes is less convincingly resolved and hinges on a debatable parsimony claim.

Clarity

Weight 10%
85

Well-formatted bullet points with bold headers and readable explanations; the structure is clear even where the logic is less strong.

Instruction Following

Weight 10%
80

Uses bullet points and addresses all subquestions, but the ‘most likely’ selection leans on carrier-count parsimony in a way that is only loosely connected to the instruction to avoid outside assumptions.

Total Score

80

Overall Comments

Answer B correctly identifies both autosomal recessive and X-linked recessive as consistent with the pedigree, and correctly rules out autosomal dominant, X-linked dominant, Y-linked, and mitochondrial inheritance. The reasoning for each ruling is sound and pedigree-based. The identification of X-linked recessive as the most likely mode based on parsimony (fewer required carriers) is a reasonable argument, though debatable. The reasoning for ruling out X-linked dominant correctly focuses on the unaffected mother I-2 having an affected son II-2. Overall, Answer B is more accurate and complete in its classification of inheritance modes.

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Correctness

Weight 45%
85

Answer B correctly classifies all six inheritance modes. X-linked recessive is correctly identified as consistent, with proper reasoning about carrier mothers. X-linked dominant is correctly ruled out using the key observation that unaffected I-2 cannot produce affected son II-2. All other rulings are accurate and well-supported.

Reasoning Quality

Weight 20%
75

Reasoning is generally sound and pedigree-based throughout. The X-linked recessive reasoning correctly traces carrier status through the pedigree. The most-likely-mode reasoning using parsimony is reasonable though not the strongest possible argument. No major logical errors are present.

Completeness

Weight 15%
80

Answer B addresses all six inheritance modes, identifies both consistent modes, and provides a reasoned choice for the most likely mode. The comparison between the two consistent modes is explicitly made, fulfilling all parts of the question.

Clarity

Weight 10%
70

Answer B is clearly structured with bullet points and bold headers. Reasoning is concise and readable. Slightly less detailed in genotype assignments but still clear and well-organized.

Instruction Following

Weight 10%
80

Answer B follows the bullet point format, addresses all six modes, correctly identifies consistent vs. ruled-out modes, and provides a most-likely determination with comparison to other consistent modes. It closely follows all task requirements.

Total Score

98

Overall Comments

Answer B provides a completely correct and well-reasoned analysis. It accurately identifies both autosomal recessive and X-linked recessive as consistent modes. Its standout feature is the excellent justification for selecting X-linked recessive as the most likely mode, correctly applying the principle of parsimony, which is a sophisticated step in genetic analysis. The answer is clear, complete, and demonstrates a strong understanding of the topic.

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Correctness

Weight 45%
100

The answer is perfectly correct. It accurately identifies both Autosomal Recessive and X-linked Recessive as consistent with the pedigree, and correctly rules out all other modes. The final conclusion is also correct and well-supported.

Reasoning Quality

Weight 20%
95

The reasoning is excellent. For each mode, it provides a clear, concise, and correct reason based on the pedigree. The justification for choosing the most likely mode by invoking parsimony (fewer carriers required) is a sophisticated and appropriate argument, demonstrating a deep understanding of genetic principles.

Completeness

Weight 15%
100

The answer is fully complete. It addresses every part of the prompt thoroughly and correctly, evaluating all six modes, providing reasons, and then performing the required comparative analysis to identify the single most likely mode.

Clarity

Weight 10%
90

The answer is very clear and well-structured. The use of bolding for the mode names and a separate section for the final conclusion enhances readability. The reasoning is presented in a direct and easy-to-follow manner.

Instruction Following

Weight 10%
100

The answer perfectly follows all instructions, including the format, the three-part structure of the question, and the constraint to use only the provided family record for reasoning.

Comparison Summary

Final rank order is determined by judge-wise rank aggregation (average rank + Borda tie-break). Average score is shown for reference.

Judges: 3

Winning Votes

1 / 3

Average Score

62
View this answer

Winning Votes

2 / 3

Average Score

82
View this answer

Judging Results

Why This Side Won

Answer B is the winner because it is factually correct, while Answer A makes a critical error by incorrectly ruling out X-linked recessive inheritance. Furthermore, Answer B provides superior reasoning for all its conclusions, including a sophisticated and appropriate justification (parsimony) for why one consistent mode is more likely than the other, which Answer A fails to do due to its initial error.

Why This Side Won

Answer B correctly classifies X-linked recessive as consistent with the pedigree, which Answer A incorrectly rules out due to a fundamental error in X-linked genetics (confusing carrier status with affected status for females). Answer B identifies both consistent modes (autosomal recessive and X-linked recessive) and provides a reasonable basis for choosing between them. This correctness advantage on a key criterion is decisive.

Judge Models OpenAI GPT-5.2

Why This Side Won

Answer A provides the more reliable overall classification and justification across all inheritance modes and selects a plausible single best mode without leaning on questionable parsimony. Answer B’s handling of X-linked recessive and its choice of “most likely” are less well grounded in the pedigree constraints and the prompt’s guidance, leading to a weaker overall solution.

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